Llamau brought Upstream to Wales because we believed youth homelessness could be prevented earlier, before crisis became inevitable. Inspired by internationally successful models in Canada, the USA and Australia, Llamau adapted the approach for Wales and created Upstream Cymru: a school-based early identification and intervention programme that helps identify young people and families at risk of homelessness or family breakdown before they reach crisis point. The Australian Geelong Project, which helped achieve a 40% reduction in youth homelessness and a 20% improvement in school attendance, shows what is possible. Llamau has taken that learning and turned it into a Welsh model rooted in our schools, communities and homelessness prevention system.
Since launching Upstream Cymru in 2020, Llamau has led the innovation, development and scale-up of the model across Wales and the wider UK and Europe. Working with Cardiff University, local authorities, youth services and schools, we developed the first programme of its kind in Wales, the UK and Europe. More than 22,000 young people have now been surveyed through Upstream, including 9,388 in Wales, giving us unprecedented insight into the early risk factors linked to youth homelessness and family breakdown. What began as a pioneering Welsh prevention model is now a scalable, data-driven solution with national reach, and Llamau has been at the heart of making that happen.
How does it work?
Upstream Cymru works by combining universal early identification with rapid, relationship-based support. Young people complete a wellbeing survey in school, the data is analysed with Cardiff University, and Llamau works with schools and partners to identify those who may be at risk of homelessness, family breakdown or wider wellbeing concerns. The strength of the model is that it does not rely on young people already being known to services; it helps uncover hidden risk earlier. The programme now operates in schools across Cardiff, Neath Port Talbot and Newport and includes:
• A year-long universal wellbeing survey
• Collation and analysis of results
• Identification of high or immediate risk responses
• Facilitation of school referrals for at-risk pupils
• Provision of tailored support interventions based on identified need
This co-ordinated, data-driven approach turns young people’s own voices into practical action. It enables schools, Llamau and partners to spot concerns before they become crises and to put the right support around young people and families at the right time. All survey data also forms part of a longitudinal study with Cardiff University into youth homelessness prevention.
The case for acting earlier is clear. Research by Professor Peter Mackie and Ian Thomas for Crisis UK found that nearly half of single homeless adults across Great Britain first became homeless aged 20 or younger. This means youth homelessness is not only a young person’s crisis; it is often the start of a much longer pattern of homelessness and disadvantage. Upstream Cymru is designed to interrupt that pattern before it takes hold.
Ongoing analysis by Cardiff University continues to strengthen the evidence base for Upstream Cymru, drawing on survey data from thousands of young people across Wales. The findings show how early risk of homelessness and family breakdown can be identified before crisis point, creating a clearer route from insight to support. Key findings in the latest report include:
• Youth Homelessness: About 1 in 20 (6%) pupils needed immediate intervention
due to the risk of youth homelessness, and nearly 1 in 10 (9%) were at high risk.
• Family Homelessness: 16% of pupils had one or more risk indicators for family homelessness.
Identification to Intervention
Once the survey is complete, Llamau works quickly with schools, and early intervention leads to understand the data and agree the right response. This may include whole-school activity, targeted support for individual pupils, family mediation, or wider multi-agency support where risks are more complex. The aim is simple: to make sure no young person identified through Upstream is left unseen or unsupported.
For young people identified as suitable for Upstream intervention, support is delivered by Llamau’s Family Mediation and EMPHASIS early intervention workers. Their work is flexible, relationship-based and practical, helping young people and families address conflict, improve communication, strengthen wellbeing and remain safely together wherever possible.
Llamau’s teams don’t just visit schools; they become part of the school community. They build trusted relationships with pupils, families and staff, offering steady support throughout the school year and staying connected during school holidays or outside term time when young people and families need that extra help.
2025/2026 Highlights
In 2025-26, 2,589 young people were surveyed through Upstream Cymru, with 258 identified as being at risk of homelessness or in need of support. Llamau’s teams worked alongside schools and families to provide targeted support, with clear evidence of impact:
• 100% of young people identified at risk of homelessness were supported to safely remain at home.
• 81% of families reported stronger relationships, improved communication, and more quality time together.
• 77% of young people felt more optimistic about their future.
• 81% saw improved school attendance as a direct result of Upstream Cymru’s support.
At its heart, Upstream Cymru is about spotting the early signs that a young person or family may be struggling and putting the right support in place before things reach crisis point. Working alongside schools, young people and families, Llamau helps to build resilience, confidence and stronger relationships at home and in school. These results show what early support can mean in practice: fewer crisis presentations, families better able to manage conflict and instability, young people remaining safely at home, and more hope for the future.
One of Upstream Cymru’s most important findings is that risk is often hidden, but that does not mean it is harmless or disconnected from education. School attendance is a key protective factor: when attendance starts to fall, young people are more likely to miss learning, lose confidence, fall behind in attainment and become less connected to the relationships, routines and trusted adults that help keep them safe. Over time, low attendance and poorer attainment can increase the risk of disengagement, becoming NEET, family conflict escalating and, for some young people, homelessness.
Many young people at risk of homelessness may still be attending school, engaging with teachers and not yet visible through existing concern or attendance systems. Family conflict, instability, poor wellbeing, bullying or feeling disconnected from school can all sit behind the surface, which is why Upstream Cymru’s universal screening is so important. Data from young people surveyed in 2025-26 shows:
• 85% were at low or no risk of school disengagement.
• 60% agreed or strongly agreed that they get along well with most of their teachers.
• 7% agreed or strongly agreed that they regularly skip school, and 11% reported getting into frequent trouble at school.
• 22% reported being bullied at least 1–2 times per month.
Crucially, of the 9% of pupils identified as an immediate priority due to risk of homelessness, 66% were at low or no risk of school disengagement.
This insight reveals a critical gap: many at-risk young people are not easily identifiable through traditional school indicators. Upstream Cymru bridges this gap by combining universal screening with timely, targeted and specialist support. It helps schools and partners move from concern to action, strengthening family relationships, improving communication and making sure young people receive help in a safe, supportive environment before homelessness becomes inevitable.
Upstream & Youth Engagement and Progression Framework
The survey also aligns strongly with the goals of the Youth Engagement and Progression Framework, supporting work to reduce NEET status and prevent homelessness. Upstream Cymru adds a crucial layer of insight by identifying young people who may otherwise be missed by traditional early identification tools managed by local EPCs.
By identifying risk earlier and providing personalised support, Upstream Cymru increases the chances of young people remaining engaged in school, avoiding NEET status by the end of Year 11, and sustaining progress into positive post-16 destinations. It strengthens collaboration between schools, homelessness services, youth services and local authorities, and supports Estyn’s focus on progression into education, employment and training by helping learners to stay connected before difficulties escalate.
Last year, 81% of young people supported by Llamau Upstream Project reported improved school attendance.
Upstream Cymru: scale up
Upstream Cymru is ready for scale-up. The hard work has already been done. Llamau has worked with Cardiff University to develop a nationally recognised digital tool that helps identify homelessness risk early, before young people and families reach crisis point. We have worked alongside schools, education partners and local authorities across Wales to build understanding, confidence and interest in the model. This means Upstream Cymru is no longer an idea or a small pilot; it is a tested approach with the partnerships, data and learning needed to take the next step.
Since 2020, more than 9,300 young people in Wales have been surveyed through Upstream Cymru. That gives us a significant and growing understanding of their lives: what they are carrying, where they feel connected, where they feel unsafe, and where support is needed earlier. Upstream is powerful because it is built on young people’s own voices. It allows services to see what is often hidden, and to respond with the right support before homelessness becomes inevitable.
Upstream Cymru can now move homelessness prevention into its next chapter in Wales. It brings together national data sets, established partnerships and clear impact evidence, combining early identification with practical intervention. This is what makes the model different: it does not wait for a young person or their family to present in crisis; it uses data, relationships and specialist support to act earlier. With the foundations now in place, Upstream Cymru is ready to support pioneering, prevention-led work at a national scale across Wales.
Upstream across the UK: a Welsh model with national reach
What started in Wales is now growing quickly across the UK. Upstream is expanding across Scotland, Northern Ireland and England, with more than 22,000 young people now surveyed through the model. Funding is also being made available by local and national governments in Scotland and England to support further scale-up, recognising Upstream as a practical, evidence-led approach to youth homelessness prevention innovation.
In June 2026, the Upstream UK Partnership, chaired by Llamau and delivered with partners across the four nations, won the Homeless Link Excellence Award for Successful Partnerships. The award reflects the strength of the collaboration, the shared commitment to prevention, and the growing confidence in Upstream as a model that can identify hidden risk early and help young people and families before crisis takes hold.
This is important for Wales. Upstream is a Welsh-made model, built from Llamau’s expertise and experience, and developed in partnership with Cardiff University, Welsh schools and local authorities. As a new Senedd Government takes shape, and as Wales renews its commitment to driving homelessness prevention, we have an opportunity to lead again. If we are serious about preventing youth homelessness before it happens, Upstream Cymru must be part of our national toolkit for Wales.